Outlook for October 2017

The stock markets continue hitting all-time highs. The party continues on even as most investors agree that the valuations are stretched. It is interesting that valuations don’t seem to matter as most “pundits” keep throwing phrases around like — “Yes, valuations are stretched, but stocks will double from here”.  The hubris is not just with the commentators. We have Fed chair saying — “No more financial crisis in our lifetime” and executives like American Airlines CEO saying “We will never lose money again”. Pure madness! 
Continue reading

Outlook for September 2017

Is there anything that will make investors falter during these times? The market seems to be resilient to any/all bad news that comes its way as things are brushed aside and the march to new highs continue. However, there is no dearth of major issues on the horizon, with margin accounts sitting at record, auto-loan delinquencies piling up, household debt load skyrocketing, pensions debacle starting to unwind, US debt-ceiling on track to hit in late Sep/early Oct and many many more. 
Continue reading

Outlook for August 2017

Markets continue their march higher, although some cracks are starting to appear. Amazon, one of the big five that is shouldering this stock market missed big time with their recent quarterly earnings, missing earnings by a massive 77%. There are other major issues on the horizon as well, with margin accounts sitting at record, auto-loan delinquencies piling up, household debt load skyrocketing, pensions debacle starting to unwind, US debt-ceiling on track to hit early October and many many more. Even with all these macro risks, investors continue to pile into the stock market and the volatility gets suppressed to a record low level. The following tweet illustrates how low the volatility currently is. Calm before the big storm?


Continue reading

Outlook for July 2017

Markets continue their march higher, week after week. June turned out to be another month with the market hitting all time highs. Nothing seems to worry the investors these days. Why would it, especially when you have the Fed chair saying that we will not see another financial crisis in our lifetime. No need to worry right? 😉 If there was any doubt of hubris in the market, this should be it, imo.  
Continue reading