Outlook for August 2017

Markets continue their march higher, although some cracks are starting to appear. Amazon, one of the big five that is shouldering this stock market missed big time with their recent quarterly earnings, missing earnings by a massive 77%. There are other major issues on the horizon as well, with margin accounts sitting at record, auto-loan delinquencies piling up, household debt load skyrocketing, pensions debacle starting to unwind, US debt-ceiling on track to hit early October and many many more. Even with all these macro risks, investors continue to pile into the stock market and the volatility gets suppressed to a record low level. The following tweet illustrates how low the volatility currently is. Calm before the big storm?


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Outlook for July 2017

Markets continue their march higher, week after week. June turned out to be another month with the market hitting all time highs. Nothing seems to worry the investors these days. Why would it, especially when you have the Fed chair saying that we will not see another financial crisis in our lifetime. No need to worry right? đŸ˜‰ If there was any doubt of hubris in the market, this should be it, imo.  
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Outlook for May 2017

Things have been chugging along in the markets. As regular readers may have noticed, I have been fairly inactive in my posts on this blog. My work has been very demanding lately and I havent had enough time to dedicate to write new posts and share with you. In fact, I havent been able to follow the markets either….which isn’t a bad thing….taking a break from the lunacy of the stock and bond markets allows me to focus my attention elsewhere. 
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Outlook for April 2017

Q1 wrapped up with more disconnect between the fundamentals and the performance of equity markets. There are plenty of very questionable areas of the economy which are being widely discounted as investors are herded towards the edge of the cliff. The mantra has been to remind everyone that There Is No Alternative (TINA), and US stock market is the only place to invest if you want to make any money. That playbook has been going on for a while, as the focus shifts from monetary policy to fiscal policy. The Trump administration has failed to deliver on any of the promises so far, and it will be interesting to note when the investors’ patience will run out.  
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