Outlook for September 2019

August turned into a disaster for a lot of investors as the markets are roiling in trade war updates, resurgence in negative yielding debt, and other political issues. The flight to safety seems to be name of the game, as bond interest rates fall further and investors load up on gold.

The rate cuts are abound from central bankers around the world. The one central bank that is outlier, Bank of Canada, is also expected to turn dovish in coming days.

Outlook for September 2019

As the gold market starts its bull run, I have been enjoying good gains over the past few weeks/months. As I have an overweight position in gold exposure that I built up in the last 1-2 years, I don’t expect to do much except potentially sell and book some gains. I am reminded of Jim Grant’s famous quote:

“Successful investing is having everyone agree with you………..later.”

– Jim Grant

Work on portfolio management is never complete when it comes to investing. There is always the future to worry about and look for best available opportunities.

I intend to remain focused on high-quality companies & high-conviction investment ideas. In my hunt for deep value, I have ended up with some weak companies that are cluttering my portfolio. I am slowly going through the cleanup activity and expect to have this completed before the end of the year.

As I revamp my portfolio, I am also paying closer attention to position sizing. I intend to structure my portfolio so that I have enough weightage on appropriate securities (there was a bit of an imbalance in the past) going forward. You can track my recent buys and sales here.

As of Aug 31, 2019 our portfolio is diversified as shown below.

Looking for investment ideas? Check out this Top Investment Picks for 2019, where 30+ investors present their top pick and a reason to invest in those securities.

I have also started putting together a series of posts for Investment Ideas, where I explore different ways of looking at companies and finding inspiration for further research.

What are your thoughts on the points mentioned above? Do you have any specific thoughts on the markets and looking at anything interesting? Are there any stocks that you believe is a strong conviction buy here? Share with a comment below.

Full Disclosure: Our full list of holdings is available here.

6 thoughts on “Outlook for September 2019

    • Yeah will be interesting to see how things turn out. Seems like the playbook will be same as it has always been – talk things up, reduce rates, then QE and if that doesnt solve it, just start buying equities.

      R2R

  1. JC says:

    I’d never heard of that quote from Jim Grant, but man that’s a good one. The markets definitely saw volatility pick up and the flight to safety was in full effect. I never made it to investing in individual miners, but I do have exposure via GDX and GDXJ, as well as and option play on GDX. Those certainly helped out many of my other investments headed south. I’ve been very seriously contemplating trimming back some of my investments mainly because there’s way too many small positions and some companies that are more lottery ticket at this point than anything else, *cough* GE *cough*. I think it’s probably best to just take the loss, and the tax writeoff, and get the little bit of cash that I can from it. Others that are on the chopping block are SBRA which I got from spinoff/mergers and then some various positions that I’ve picked up over the years but never got around to adding more too. I’m also thinking of trimming back some of my financials exposure, but I’m not sure just yet.

    • Glad your portfolio is protected with the GDX & GDXJ hedges.

      GE seems like it might be good for a turnaround — they have the right CEO in place, but who know if the mess at GE is too big even for him. I feel the same about spinoffs — and about the smaller positions — get rid of them and just concentrate on a smaller number of equities. For more diversification, there always index funds.

      R2R

      • JC says:

        That’s what I’m not sure about with GE. It’s so beaten down now that I think selling now is probably a too little too late scenario. There’s a lot of unknowns around GE right now. Honestly at this point it’s definitely in the way too complicated pile, but I still like some of their business units which makes the decision tough.

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