Outlook for July 2019

Summer doldrums are here, but no loss of excitement in the markets. Every week we hear the same beat of the drums — trade negotiations, political circus, central bank policy commentary.

The treasury rates continue to weaken and bond market continues to price in rate cuts from the Fed and other central bankers. The amount of negative yielding debt is at a record and more securities continue to trade in negative territory. Whether this will result in an actual recession is anyone’s guess at this time.

The stock markets have done extremely well so far in 2019. The drop in markets in Q4 2018 and the low starting point for the YTD performance numbers help in showing spectacular returns.

Courtesy of Novel Investor

Outlook for July 2019

On a personal investment front, I intend to remain focused on high-quality companies & high-conviction investment ideas. Over the past few months, I have made a pivot to change my focus from the macro to micro. I do not intend to completely ignore macro, but plan on reducing the impact it has on my investment decisions.

I have also decided to reduce my total number of holdings and follow a more concentrated investment model. Instead of investing in my 15th best idea — I want to continue adding and building my position in high conviction ideas even if it means paying a bit of a premium on the share price. Look forward to some portfolio changes in the coming days/weeks.

As of Jun 30, 2019 our portfolio is diversified as shown below.

Looking for investment ideas? Check out this Top Investment Picks for 2019, where 30+ investors present their top pick and a reason to invest in those securities.

I have also started putting together a series of posts for Investment Ideas, where I explore different ways of looking at companies and finding inspiration for further research.

What are your thoughts on the points mentioned above? Do you have any specific thoughts on the markets and looking at anything interesting? Are there any stocks that you believe is a strong conviction buy here? Share with a comment below.

Full Disclosure: Our full list of holdings is available here.

2 thoughts on “Outlook for July 2019

  1. JC says:

    I have no clue what’s coming in the months ahead. I still hold to the belief that we’re in an everything bubble and the timing of it’s bursting is anyone’s guess. I just don’t see how this ends well for a lot of investment vehicles but complicating matters is the fact that the US is essentially the “cleanest dirty shirt in the hamper”. So maybe the USD and bonds won’t be hurt as bad as I think. All I know is that it’s mind boggling to think that we’re in “the greatest economy ever” (his words, not mine) with the major US indices at or near ATH and we’re talking about rate cuts coming around the corner. What?!?!?!?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *